Forecasts scored
220
total predictions tested against actual prices
Avg miss (MAE)
1.93 c/L
mean absolute error: how far off on average
Direction of miss (bias)
-0.88 c/L
we predict too low on average
Within uncertainty band
100%
% of actuals that fell inside our quoted range
Worst single miss
5.1 c/L
biggest gap forecast vs actual to date
Per horizon
| Horizon | n | MAE | Median AE | Bias | In-band |
|---|
| T+1 | 60 | 1.26 | 1.16 | +0.49 | 100% |
| T+2 | 30 | 1.45 | 1.62 | +0.35 | 100% |
| T+3 | 30 | 1.68 | 1.54 | +0.71 | 100% |
| T+4 | 20 | 1.88 | 1.71 | -1.88 | 100% |
| T+5 | 30 | 2.44 | 2.35 | -2.44 | 100% |
| T+6 | 30 | 2.56 | 3.17 | -2.56 | 100% |
| T+7 | 20 | 3.32 | 3.35 | -3.32 | 100% |
Per city × fuel (T+1 only)
| City | Fuel | n | MAE | Bias | In-band |
|---|
| Adelaide | DIESEL | 6 | 1.27 | +0.43 | 100% |
| Adelaide | ULP91 | 6 | 1.25 | +0.45 | 100% |
| Brisbane | DIESEL | 6 | 1.25 | +0.48 | 100% |
| Brisbane | ULP91 | 6 | 1.22 | +0.43 | 100% |
| Melbourne | DIESEL | 6 | 1.51 | +0.65 | 100% |
| Melbourne | ULP91 | 6 | 1.13 | +0.55 | 100% |
| Perth | DIESEL | 6 | 1.22 | +0.53 | 100% |
| Perth | ULP91 | 6 | 1.22 | +0.44 | 100% |
| Sydney | DIESEL | 6 | 1.24 | +0.47 | 100% |
| Sydney | ULP91 | 6 | 1.27 | +0.43 | 100% |
Daily MAE: T+1 across all cells (last 6 days)
06-02
06-03
06-04
06-05
06-09
06-10
10 worst misses to date
| Date | City | Fuel | Horizon | Forecast | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Brisbane | ULP91 | T+7 | 154.62 | 159.70 | -5.08 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sydney | ULP91 | T+7 | 154.36 | 159.40 | -5.04 |
| 2026-06-10 | Perth | ULP91 | T+7 | 153.37 | 158.40 | -5.03 |
| 2026-06-10 | Adelaide | ULP91 | T+7 | 154.00 | 158.90 | -4.90 |
| 2026-06-10 | Melbourne | ULP91 | T+7 | 154.69 | 158.80 | -4.11 |
| 2026-06-10 | Brisbane | DIESEL | T+6 | 189.17 | 192.90 | -3.73 |
| 2026-06-10 | Adelaide | DIESEL | T+6 | 188.77 | 192.50 | -3.73 |
| 2026-06-09 | Brisbane | DIESEL | T+5 | 189.09 | 192.70 | -3.61 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sydney | ULP91 | T+6 | 155.81 | 159.40 | -3.59 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sydney | DIESEL | T+6 | 189.11 | 192.70 | -3.59 |
Plain English glossary:
• MAE (Mean Absolute Error): on average, how many cents per litre we miss by.
• Bias: the average direction of our misses. Positive means we tend to predict too high; negative means we tend to predict too low.
• Within uncertainty band: we don't just guess a single number, we quote a range. This % tells you how often the real price fell inside the range we said it would.
• TGP: Terminal Gate Price, the wholesale price one of the four AU fuel majors sells fuel to retailers from their terminal.
• T+1, T+3 etc.: "1 day out", "3 days out", meaning how far ahead the forecast was made.
Every forecast we make is logged. When the actual TGP publishes, the forecast is scored. This page regenerates automatically with every bulletin run. No manual editing, no hiding misses.