A Crude Estimate is the daily market intelligence bulletin for Australian fuel buyers. Terminal gate price forecasts for every mainland capital, a morning briefing you can read before your first coffee, and a close report that tells you how the day actually went. Data-backed, on the pulse of everything that moves fuel, and scored in public every single day.
Most forecasters tell you about their wins. We publish every result, every morning: what we predicted, what the price actually did, and how far off we were. Wins and misses, in public, where we can't hide them. That is the standard a $1,500/month product should be held to.
| Horizon | Average miss | Proof |
|---|---|---|
| Next day | 0.74 c/L | 52,290 forecasts validated walk-forward, Sep 2022 to May 2026, then scored live daily |
| Three days out | 2.03 c/L | |
| One week out | 4.12 c/L |
In calm weeks, roughly half the year, the three-day forecast lands within 3 c/L of the published price 96% of the time. The live scorecard is public. Check it any day, including today.
Wholesale fuel responds to the global crude complex, refined product markets across the region, the Australian dollar, the fuel tax calendar, refinery outages and shipping disruptions, and the daily terminal gate prints in every capital. You could watch all of it yourself, every day, before 7am. Or it can be distilled onto one page that takes 60 seconds to read, with the call that matters at the top: buy now, or wait.
The next five business days of wholesale prices for petrol and diesel in your capital, with honest uncertainty ranges and a volatility flag on every number. On your phone before you order the tanker.
How today's prices landed against what we told you this morning, what moved in the markets during the day, the news that matters for tomorrow's order, and tomorrow at a glance.
Every forecast carries a CALM / MEDIUM / SHOCK flag. When the market goes into shock, we say so plainly and tell you to defer if you can. Avoiding a single badly-timed 30,000 L fill can pay for months of subscription.
Supplier spread analysis shows which major cut hardest yesterday, so your next contract call starts from data instead of their quote. Your supplier reads the market every morning. Now you do too.
Both tiers start the same way: 14 days free, no card. Decide with your own numbers.
Independent fuel retailers and regional site groups ordering tankers on 1 to 3 day lead times. Trucking and logistics fleets with onsite diesel storage, where fuel is a third of operating cost. Distributors whose entire P&L is the wholesale spread. If you buy fuel at terminal gate prices and someone in your business decides when, this bulletin pays its way. Running one low-volume site? Talk to us anyway; a lighter tier is coming.